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Prediction markets and election forecasts

Zev Berger writes:

The question sounds snarky, but it’s not meant in that vein. It’s instructive to hear how modelers understand the predictions of their models, which is something I am still trying to think through.

Your model has the chance of Biden being elected at 0.95. Predictit has Biden at 0.60. Given the spread, do you have money on a Biden victory?

My reply: I wrote about this here and in section 2.6 of this article.

Relatedly, I received this email from Harry Crane:

Writing to call your attention to joint work with Darrion Vinson, which may be of interest to your readers.

We’re running a study that compares statistical forecasts against prediction markets for 2020 election cycle. We’re pre-registering our analysis by posting our methods ahead of time. The first version is here.

We also have an app that tracks the performance over time.

Currently we’re only comparing forecasts from 538 to the market at PredictIt.

I understand you’ve also designed a model for the Economist. If you have historical data of daily forecasts for President, House and/or Senate, perhaps we could add your method to our analysis in a later version.

I pointed him to the above links on betting markets for 2020, along with our election forecast (just google economist election forecast) with code, data, and predictions on github. I am only involved in the forecast for president so can’t comment on any forecasts for congress.

P.S. No 6-month lag for obvious reasons.



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